$5 gas

[jphickory]

Jp,

Yeah voting means nothing. I said it. How else could congress have a 9% approval rating?

As for oil drilling - let wikipedia say what it will-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_United_States



with approximately 5% of the world's population, the United States is responsible for approximately 25% of annual global oil consumption and according to 2008 estimates has a per-person daily consumption rate more than double that of the European Union, whose population is significantly greater.[44][45] Automobiles are the single largest consumer of oil,[46] consuming 40%, and are also the source of 20% of the nation's greenhouse gas emissions.[47]


An offshore oil platformThe USA has about 22 billion barrels (3.5×109 m3) reserves while consuming about 7.6 billion barrels (1.21×109 m3) per year.[42]

Simple math is that 22/7 = about 3 years. Total.


The oil companies do not drill the vast majority of the U.S. reserves that they already have leases for? Know why? It doesn't pay. They can import it cheaper. But if they add more and more to their reserves on paper. That makes their stock worth more. They can claim they hold leases on so many billion barrels worth of oil

I have this conversation with people from time to time. For you, perhaps its the first time you are hearing it. For me, it gets repetitive. We couln't pump enough to leverage the entire world market.

I can't vote to change the numbers of the global market. I can change my own numbers though,the mpg's and btu's . I have that power.

Keystone I really do not know enough about, nor do I feel like it. Can we agree to say that gas is predicted to go up and this will have an effect?

You want to blame it on Obama, or the republican of your choice, whatever. Go ahead. I think they are all the same. I am not buying it, but - as John Mellancamp wrote - My opinion means nuts.

"Voting means nothing" - that is a very unfortunate statement for any American to make. Countless men have fallen to defend our representative form of government. Ask someone who lives with a dictator's boot on their neck if voting matters - and they would quickly let you know how unenlightened your remark is.

I also disagree with your comments regarding the oil industry. It would be a lengthy discussion and one that requires a basic understanding of the obstacles currently in place that keeps the USA from exploiting its own massive oil reserves.

 

[thearcticsea]

Stupid conversation. Bottom line - politicians do whatever they want. We just live here.

And as far as oil prices going up? More fat, ugly Americans should ride bikes and walk to work anyway. I'm sick of the ridiculous consumption in this country. It's enough to make me move to Europe. I'm not kidding.

Americans need to think about all the shit they're shoveling into their faces, furnaces, fuel tanks, and live more responsibly.

 

[jphickory]

Stupid conversation. Bottom line - politicians do whatever they want. We just live here.

And as far as oil prices going up? More fat, ugly Americans should ride bikes and walk to work anyway. I'm sick of the ridiculous consumption in this country. It's enough to make me move to Europe. I'm not kidding.

Americans need to think about all the shit they're shoveling into their faces, furnaces, fuel tanks, and live more responsibly.

Wow - you deemed the previous conversation stupid and then followed it with some incredibly intelligent and insightful remarks. We are all impressed!!

 

[BlueJ]

...And the new fuel efficient cars are selling like hot cakes. I SOLD MY V8 F350 when gas hit around $2/ gallon and I bought a V6 minivan. If it gets to $5 I might trade that for a CMAX which is a 6 passenger light mini van with a 4 cyl that Ford is now making....

Do the math Sal, it doesn't pay. Suppose you're rocking a nice '67 Camaro with a small block V8 getting a thrilling 10 mpg. And suppose you rock that thing 10K miles per year. That's one thousand gallons of gas per year. Hey check out the Smart car or the Leaf (ok never mind the Leaf because that electricity comes from somewhere, and it's not free - let's stick to good old internal combustion). Smart car. Let's just say, to make the math easy, 50mpg. Drive that baby 10K miles/year on only 200 gallons of gas, whee!

So you save 800 gallons a year. At $5/gallon, that's $4,000. It will take you 5 years to break even on that Smartcar from a fuel economy point of view. Longer if gas doesn't hit $5. Longer still if you're doing what so many people do and are not jumping from 10mpg to 50mpg but instead from about 20mpg to 30mpg. In that latter case, you're saving only 200 gallons a year. At $1000/year of fuel savings, it's going to take a long time to pay for that minivan.



Now, if you want to do it because it makes you feel better about the environment, that's another story altogether. But most people, when push comes to shove, vote with their wallets. So I've long felt, that if we want to make a significant impact on the environment and on how long our fossil fuel resources will last (and when I say "our" resources, I'm talking about those on the whole planet, not just the North American corner. Globe's a little too small to take a parochial nationalistic view here), anyway, you want to make those resources last, gas should cost $10/gallon. I'm totally serious. Add a $5/gallon tax across the board, nationwide. Make people walk, bicycle, carpool, public transport for all those little trips. Take that money and invest in bike paths, public transport, more efficient engines, alternative energy, etc.

And for everyone that complains that adding $5 a gallon is going to send them to financial ruin - really? You're running your finances so close to the edge that an extra 1-2K per year is going to send you to the poorhouse? Even after you turn off your unlimited monthly cell phone plan and cable TV and stop driving your car for 3 minute errands? You're already living beyond your means. Perhaps you live too far from work, or ought to take a bus or train. Whatever it is, you've got bigger problems that need addressing than the price of gas.


Sorry gents... I don't have a lot of hot buttons but this topic is one of them.

 

[jphickory]

Regarding the fallacy of a lack of natural resources......

From a recent domestic energy publication:

"A Congressional Research Service report to Congress in late 2009 indicated that America's combined supply of recoverable natural gas, oil, and coal exceeds every other nation on earth; even far greater than Saudi Arabia, China, and Canada combined. The CRS report was independently confirmed last month by the Institute for Energy Research with the release of the North American Energy Inventory. The IER study says the U.S. has more than 1.4 trillion barrels of recoverable oil reserves; 1.7 trillion barrels when combined with Canada and Mexico. That's enough for 250 years of U.S. consumption according to the IER, and more than the entire world has used in the previous 150 years. Additionally, the North American continent has 4.2 quadrillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas reserves — enough to last the next 175 years at current rates of consumption according to IER."

There is no actual reserve shortage folks and there wouldn't be a supply issue if we would allow the US oil industry to tap and refine it.

 

[Sal Paradise]

Do the math Sal, it doesn't pay. Let's just say, to make the math easy, 50mpg. Drive that baby 10K miles/year on only 200 gallons of gas, whee!

So you save 800 gallons a year. At $5/gallon, that's $4,000. It will take you 5 years to break even on that Smartcar from a fuel economy point of view. Longer if gas doesn't hit $5. Longer still if you're doing what so many people do and are not jumping from 10mpg to 50mpg but instead from about 20mpg to 30mpg. In that latter case, you're saving only 200 gallons a year. At $1000/year of fuel savings, it's going to take a long time to pay for that minivan.

Blue J

You are probably younger than me, Mr hot buttons. I gave up hot buttons for lent anyway.

I will use the actual numbers because I agree it is all about money. I pay off my cars in 4 years.

25,000 miles a year
Real 35 mpg vs real 20 mpg on the current van vs real 10 mpg on the big truck.

2500 gallon a year on the truck x $4 - $10,000 /yr for gas!
1250 on the van = $5,000/yr
714 in the cmax = $2856

No car goes forever. The truck was still good but it was going. So , and this is a real number, $2000 a year for maint. The new car - NADA.

So the truck cost $40,000 gas and $8000 maint for 4 years.
Mini van = zip for repairs and $20,000 gas
Difference = $28,000. Cost of van = $19,000. By the way I still have it. Its paid off.Carried some firewood home from work. Compared to the truck it paid for itself and then gave me $9,000!

Now the CMAX - by the way same car as my Focus so for me interchangeable. Focus cost $20,000 actual.
$2856 x 4 = $11,424 for gas. zip for repairs.
saves $37,000 over the truck!! Now the van is old so it will need repairs. so $2000/yr for repairs x 4 plus $20,000 gas - $28,000.
Cmax or Focus saves $17,000!! Costs $20,000. Pays for itself 85%. But its cooler, faster, safer. Newer. I will own it outright and it will pay me back for the rest of its useful life. Thats why they sell so many.

But no one is even arguing that. Its buying new heavy vehicles that makes no sense. Add $50,000 to those numbers for a nice Escalade. plus the $40,000 for gas. Add the extra interest and you could be spending an EXTRA $100G'S.

Also - why discount the Leaf? It's cost per mile can be easily calculated.


The numbers work.

 

[RoyNC]

I wish we had better public transportation here in the States like European countries. It would really help me cut down on gas spending. But much to our love of owning cars, the US will continue to be forced to drive everywhere and pay dearly for it.

 

[Sal Paradise]

"Voting means nothing" - that is a very unfortunate statement for any American to make. Countless men have fallen to defend our representative form of government. Ask someone who lives with a dictator's boot on their neck if voting matters - and they would quickly let you know how unenlightened your remark is.

I also disagree with your comments regarding the oil industry. It would be a lengthy discussion and one that requires a basic understanding of the obstacles currently in place that keeps the USA from exploiting its own massive oil reserves.

Blah blah blahh. YOU don't get it. They bought the politicians a long time ago.

 

[jphickory]

Sal, you sound jaded and that can become an obstacle to the truth and critical thinking. Your friend, JP

 

[B06Tang]

Pull back and look at more than just personal consumption; I remember running the numbers two years ago when the spike occurred as I work in the petroleum field. Just the DoD alone, not including other agencies, operate their FY budgets starting from 1 Oct until 30 Sept. A spike in fuel like this 3/4 of the way through the FY budget will zero accounts out because that large of a spike can't be projected. I'm not trying to steer this into a different argument...I'm just saying that this is going to pinch me at home AND at work. Let's not even talk about one jet that takes a few thousand gallons for just one sortie...

 

[Sal Paradise]

Oil prices are largely not based on supply and demand. They are set on the NYMEX and ICE commodities market which has been mostly unregulated since 2000 (commodities futures modernization act of 2000). Now half of the oil market futures contracts are held by non-commercial entities (banks, hedge funds, etc) which will not take possession of any oil. They are just making bets. Before deregulation they only held about 20% of the market.

I believe it's no coincidence that the price of oil has almost tripled since these markets have been deregulated. So, I don't think its a supply issue at all. It's the same assholes on wall-street that gambled away all of your retirement money, making the same bets on oil.

+1 Henrys. Absolutely right. They buy and sell the ship full of oil 4 times while it's at sea and never take possession of the oil.In fact they are probably using our retirement money to do it!

 

[jhillier71]

Do the math Sal, it doesn't pay. Suppose you're rocking a nice '67 Camaro with a small block V8 getting a thrilling 10 mpg. And suppose you rock that thing 10K miles per year. That's one thousand gallons of gas per year. Hey check out the Smart car or the Leaf (ok never mind the Leaf because that electricity comes from somewhere, and it's not free - let's stick to good old internal combustion). Smart car. Let's just say, to make the math easy, 50mpg. Drive that baby 10K miles/year on only 200 gallons of gas, whee!

So you save 800 gallons a year. At $5/gallon, that's $4,000. It will take you 5 years to break even on that Smartcar from a fuel economy point of view. Longer if gas doesn't hit $5. Longer still if you're doing what so many people do and are not jumping from 10mpg to 50mpg but instead from about 20mpg to 30mpg. In that latter case, you're saving only 200 gallons a year. At $1000/year of fuel savings, it's going to take a long time to pay for that minivan.



Now, if you want to do it because it makes you feel better about the environment, that's another story altogether. But most people, when push comes to shove, vote with their wallets. So I've long felt, that if we want to make a significant impact on the environment and on how long our fossil fuel resources will last (and when I say "our" resources, I'm talking about those on the whole planet, not just the North American corner. Globe's a little too small to take a parochial nationalistic view here), anyway, you want to make those resources last, gas should cost $10/gallon. I'm totally serious. Add a $5/gallon tax across the board, nationwide. Make people walk, bicycle, carpool, public transport for all those little trips. Take that money and invest in bike paths, public transport, more efficient engines, alternative energy, etc.

And for everyone that complains that adding $5 a gallon is going to send them to financial ruin - really? You're running your finances so close to the edge that an extra 1-2K per year is going to send you to the poorhouse? Even after you turn off your unlimited monthly cell phone plan and cable TV and stop driving your car for 3 minute errands? You're already living beyond your means. Perhaps you live too far from work, or ought to take a bus or train. Whatever it is, you've got bigger problems that need addressing than the price of gas.


Sorry gents... I don't have a lot of hot buttons but this topic is one of them.

David Suzuji couldnt have said it better. For those who need a good read try Rachel Carsons "Silent Spring", might give us all in N.America some new perspective but I'm sure my son and eventually my grand-kid(s) wont be as lucky as all of us waking up a bit tp what is happening across the globe....and yes, I drive a hybrid as well as a pickup.

 

[Demar]

Do the math Sal, it doesn't pay. Suppose you're rocking a nice '67 Camaro with a small block V8 getting a thrilling 10 mpg. And suppose you rock that thing 10K miles per year. That's one thousand gallons of gas per year. Hey check out the Smart car or the Leaf (ok never mind the Leaf because that electricity comes from somewhere, and it's not free - let's stick to good old internal combustion). Smart car. Let's just say, to make the math easy, 50mpg. Drive that baby 10K miles/year on only 200 gallons of gas, whee!

So you save 800 gallons a year. At $5/gallon, that's $4,000. It will take you 5 years to break even on that Smartcar from a fuel economy point of view. Longer if gas doesn't hit $5. Longer still if you're doing what so many people do and are not jumping from 10mpg to 50mpg but instead from about 20mpg to 30mpg. In that latter case, you're saving only 200 gallons a year. At $1000/year of fuel savings, it's going to take a long time to pay for that minivan.



Now, if you want to do it because it makes you feel better about the environment, that's another story altogether. But most people, when push comes to shove, vote with their wallets. So I've long felt, that if we want to make a significant impact on the environment and on how long our fossil fuel resources will last (and when I say "our" resources, I'm talking about those on the whole planet, not just the North American corner. Globe's a little too small to take a parochial nationalistic view here), anyway, you want to make those resources last, gas should cost $10/gallon. I'm totally serious. Add a $5/gallon tax across the board, nationwide. Make people walk, bicycle, carpool, public transport for all those little trips. Take that money and invest in bike paths, public transport, more efficient engines, alternative energy, etc.

And for everyone that complains that adding $5 a gallon is going to send them to financial ruin - really? You're running your finances so close to the edge that an extra 1-2K per year is going to send you to the poorhouse? Even after you turn off your unlimited monthly cell phone plan and cable TV and stop driving your car for 3 minute errands? You're already living beyond your means. Perhaps you live too far from work, or ought to take a bus or train. Whatever it is, you've got bigger problems that need addressing than the price of gas.


Sorry gents... I don't have a lot of hot buttons but this topic is one of them.

This is a good post.
As much as I would like to buy a more fuel efficient car to commute with the most cost effective thing for me to do is to keep driving my 2001 Chevy Tahoe.

It's paid for. Every year I drive it the registration is less than the prior year. The insurance is less because it's old. I pay no taxes on it. It has 198,000 miles on it and I'm driving it until the wheels fall off.

I rather buy another bike than spring for a new/different car.

Rising oil prices effect everything, home heating costs for those of you on the East coast, food price increases, cost of shipping those mail-order Bonnie parts, airfare goes up...etc.

People will drive less if the price of gas goes up. It happened 2 or 3 years ago when gas prices started rising. Vacations will not be taken, airline revenue goes down, the mom and pop stores and hotels wil have less revenue.

The Keystone Pipeline would be a good thing for this country. It will create jobs and reduce the price of fuel. Whatever happend to Obama's plan for infrastructure?????????? The "shovel ready jobs"????????????? That's all we heard about 2 years ago. Where did the billions of dollars go that were promised for infrastructure? Here is a perfect infrastructure job, one on a silver platter for the current administration. It's just not the president's idea of correct infrastructure.

Don't get me wrong.... I think ALL of Congress needs to go. Keep 10% of the current Congress for 1 additional year just to show the new guys the ropes a bit and then out they go. Congress is in it for themselves.

 

[Demar]

I wish we had better public transportation here in the States like European countries. It would really help me cut down on gas spending. But much to our love of owning cars, the US will continue to be forced to drive everywhere and pay dearly for it.

Only big cities like NY, Chicago, Los Angeles have a chance to make public transportation work. The rest of the country is not densely populated to the extent that makes sense for public transportation.

It works in Europe because the cities were built when horses ruled the fast lane. The entire West half of the US was built around the automobile, everything is spread out.

 

[BlueJ]

...25,000 miles a year...The numbers work.

Yep - you're a high mileage driver. I only used 10K for computational purposes - most folks get closer to 12K a year. You're double that so of course you'd pay it off twice as fast.

And I was only talking about gas costs, not maintenance, in order to not muddy the waters, since that's what the thread was about.

So of course the numbers work. It's folks that haven't yet paid off one car and say they're going to trade it in on a more fuel efficient one "to save money" that get my goat - when maintenance costs don't come into play. Your situation isn't the norm - you'd have saved money buying a new 10mpg truck just on maintenance alone, after the 5th year!

 

[BlueJ]

Only big cities like NY, Chicago, Los Angeles have a chance to make public transportation work. The rest of the country is not densely populated to the extent that makes sense for public transportation.

25% of the people in the U.S. live in the top 10 principal metropolitan statistical areas. If 25% of the drivers in the country can cut their driving in half, that's a big impact!

 

[Sal Paradise]

It's interesting to see most people's perspectives on this. Thanks guys. I am struck by two people who read BlueJ's post, both who seem to agree with it yet have opposite views on it. People see what they see.

I still think there is too much traffic, people going nowhere, huge vehicles for no reason,and yesterday coming home was the perfect example;

It's spring here in the Hudson Valley.The winter has been so warm, motorcycles have been on the road all year. Not mine, but I see them. And I am absolutely busting to go riding. But yesterday the 60 degree weather brought out twice as many drivers, most slowly dawdling through the rush hour traffic as if they decided to just go for a joy ride. It was maddening to try and get home. Why? Because it was warm out.

I started out thinking there wasn't much use in crying about gas prices but hoping the silver lining was that because of expensive gas more people would stay home and I could actually enjoy riding. Its what I see here on the edge of The Megalopolis. Jersey Shore SUV's with spinner rims and porn blaring on the DVD player. I could use some empty roads, and I hope they all have 10 mpg cars.

 

[BlueJ]

Sal-

Revisiting this after some thought:

I will use the actual numbers because I agree it is all about money. I pay off my cars in 4 years.

25,000 miles a year
Real 35 mpg vs real 20 mpg on the current van vs real 10 mpg on the big truck.

2500 gallon a year on the truck x $4 - $10,000 /yr for gas!
1250 on the van = $5,000/yr

No car goes forever. The truck was still good but it was going. So , and this is a real number, $2000 a year for maint. The new car - NADA.

So the truck cost $40,000 gas and $8000 maint for 4 years.
Mini van = zip for repairs and $20,000 gas

But you originally said you swapped out the truck for the minivan when gas hit $2/gallon. So at that time:

2500 gallon a year on the truck x $2 - $5,000 /yr for gas
1250 on the van = $2,500/yr

So the truck cost $20,000 gas and $8000 maint for 4 years.
Mini van = zip for repairs and $10,000 gas

Difference = $18,000. Cost of van = $19,000.

At the end of that 4 years, you were still down $1000 on the trade, which is consistent with what I originally posted (but of course by year 5 you were up)

Now the CMAX - by the way same car as my Focus so for me interchangeable. Focus cost $20,000 actual.
$2856 x 4 = $11,424 for gas. zip for repairs.
saves $37,000 over the truck!! Now the van is old so it will need repairs. so $2000/yr for repairs x 4 plus $20,000 gas - $28,000.
Cmax or Focus saves $17,000!! Costs $20,000. Pays for itself 85%.

But you said you were going to swap out of the minivan and into the Focus/CMAX when gas hit $5. At that time:

1250 gallons a year on the van at $5/gallon = $6,250/yr
714 in the cmax = $3,570

So the van cost $6,250 gas and $8000 maint for 4 years, $14,250 total.
CMAX = zip for repairs and $3,750 gas

Difference = $10,500. Cost of CMAX= $20,000.

You're down $9500 after 4 years.

But its cooler, faster, safer. Newer.

Like I said, if you're swapping cars because the next one is cooler, faster, safer, just plain newer, or you like the color better, more power to ya. It's your money. Just be careful hiding behind increased fuel economy as the primary justification, because it's frequently a fallacious argument.

Also - why discount the Leaf? It's cost per mile can be easily calculated.

Because the thread was about $5/gallon gas, and then had an excursion into fossil fuel resources, and with the Leaf, just because you don't pour the gas directly in, doesn't mean that some dead dinosaurs aren't being burned somewhere to boil some water to make some spark for you to charge it. And I agree, can be easily calculated - and comes up just as short.

The numbers work.

That's what I was saying - if you apply them correctly. Your comparison of the F250 to the minivan at today's gas prices was a bit disingenous, since you swapped them years ago. But certainly anyone that's putting high miles on a high-maintenance, low MPG vehicle would be well served considering alternatives.

Cheers buddy!

Oh - and your comment about folks that seemed to agree with my thread but had 2 points of view? I'm not going to participate in the discussion about voting because the Dude don't Abide politics, and not in the one about remaining resources because Nobody Knows how much is left (although we are now at the point where the rate at which new discoveries are made each year exceeds our consumption, so now, just 125 short years after we started sucking the oil out of our planet, we're on the diminishing returns end of the curve).

 

[Sal Paradise]

BlueJ -

You wrote

1250 gallons a year on the van at $5/gallon = $6,250/yr
714 in the cmax = $3,570

So the van cost $6,250 gas and $8000 maint for 4 years, $14,250 total.
CMAX = zip for repairs and $3,750 gas

Difference = $10,500. Cost of CMAX= $20,000.

You're down $9500 after 4 years.

I think you forgot to multiply the $6250 x 4.

As for the van - even if it paid me back only $18,000 out of $19,000 that would be an awesome deal. A brand new car for $1000!! And I have kept it beyond that time period.


You can't bullshit a bulshitter. What are you getting at? You keep saying I am disingenuous. That I am hiding behind fuel economy arguments. Are you trying to argue that it is better to keep big gas guzzlers? It could be if you drive low miles. Maybe your Frueduan slip is showing. You did say it's a hot button. So just say what you really think. You like to collect big cars or whatever. Hey, I like hot rods too. I like them, but i don't pretend they are rational.

But follow the logic of that a little further. If in fact you do drive really low miles, is it rational to spend upwards of $40,000 on a big fancy new SUV? Or a built Camaro? No, its not rational. Its collecting. Collecting cars that you think will make your friends or even starngers go " WOW" Like my cousins in Phoenix who pay an extra 15 grand for a 4 wheel drive when it never snows in Phoenix. Of course it isn't rational. People are not rational. They never were.

I don't worry about that or about these numbers overall. I can tell the numbers work because I do better financially. Its a simple matter of technology progressing.

I am all for car collecting.

You know I read your post 3 times and it contradicts itself all over the place. For instance you write - "we are now at the point where the rate at which new discoveries are made each year exceeds our consumption, so now, just 125 short years after we started sucking the oil out of our planet, we're on the diminishing returns end of the curve" So you state that there is more oil being discovered than consumed and then you continure the very same sentence by saying we are on the diminishing returns. I don't think I can follow you any more. I get the idea you want to shoot down my " arguments" which are not arguments per se but you both continue to prove me right and contradict yourself. Cheers, I guess....

 

[loxpump]

The only problem with driving a smart car is driving a smart car. I think if a state has a helmet law for bikes anyone driving a smart car should have to wear one too, otherwise a fender bender becomes a fatal accident. I like the Babes on Bikes thread.